Why this conversation happened at KSE GBS

Some questions are easier to discuss from a distance — where war remains an analytical category rather than daily reality. KSE GBS deliberately builds a different format. Business leaders who grow companies under shelling understand geopolitics differently from those who read about it in reports. Conversations with world-class experts here aren't theoretical — they're about concrete decisions: building resilient supply chains, attracting investment into a country at war, developing and preparing for recovery right now.

Top insights
1. We thought the 21st century would be American. We were wrong.

What is happening today is not a sudden rupture — it's the finale of a long unraveling. We entered the 21st century convinced of American unipolarity, a third wave of democratization, NATO and UN expansion, the responsibility to protect. Liberal democracy seemed irreversible. It wasn't.
"We are witnessing the acceleration of a transition away from the American order toward something else. This didn't come from nowhere. The shift to a multipolar world has been underway since the early 21st century — and now we're seeing it accelerate toward something more fragmented, competitive, and closed," said Emma Sky.
America remains the largest player. But this is already a skewed multipolarity, not hegemony.

2. The norms are broken. Geography is back.

The rules that held the world together after 1945 are eroding. The postwar order gave every country a seat at the table. The most powerful states voluntarily constrained themselves. Those constraints are now dissolving.
Strikes on civilian infrastructure, rhetoric about "erasing civilizations" — all of this normalizes what was once classified as war crimes. And with it, strategic geography returns: shipping routes, energy corridors, supply chains are once again weapons. COVID exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Current conflicts confirm it: the need for local, reliable supply chains is the new reality.

3. Ukraine is not a victim. Ukraine is a security donor.

The central thesis of the discussion: Ukraine has changed its position in the global security architecture. The country that needed weapons three years ago today was the first to offer Gulf allies its experience in drone countermeasures — and did so faster than any NATO partner.
"We are no longer just recipients of support. We produce our own systems. Our experience is what is now making front pages in European media and reaching European policymakers," said Olena Sotnyk.
According to Emma Sky, Ukraine is demonstrating what the war of the future looks like: the integration of intelligence, technology, and command in real time — something traditional Western armies have yet to master.

4. European unity as the defining challenge

The fault lines within the EU run not between "old" and "new" Europe, but between the North — which understands the threat — and the South, which still lives in a comfort zone.
"The main risk for the EU is that an existential threat could fracture it from within. Just as within Ukraine, unity is not a given. And I'm not sure the sense of urgency is understood," stressed Olena Sotnyk.
Alexandra Vakru framed the core dilemma: Europe has 27 small armies and not a single general with experience commanding over 250,000 troops. The only army on the continent with real combat experience is Ukrainian.

5. Trump and the question with no answer

The Trump administration is transactional by nature, preoccupied with the Middle East, and inclined toward "quick deals."
"We must maintain relationships — whatever happens. Wait for the moment. Black swans happen — and when they do, an opportunity appears. We need to be ready to seize it," said Olena Sotnyk.

6. What will determine the outcome of the war?

Asked what single factor will decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Emma Sky answered:
"Ukrainians. Who they are. I've seen veterans — with amputated arms and legs — talking about Ukraine as a country that wins Nobel Prizes and has world-class medicine. At a moment when you're still in the war and so deeply wounded — and you're focused on the future. That is the answer."