The Economic War: A New Reality for Ukrainian Enterprises

In the first nine months of 2026, 1,569 attacks on business facilities were recorded in Ukraine. Direct losses amount to $7.7 billion, of which $3.3 billion is in energy and another $2.4 billion in warehouse infrastructure.

These losses directly affect economic forecasts. According to estimates presented during the speech, Ukraine’s GDP could shrink by 0.5% by the end of the year. Even the optimistic scenario projects growth of only 1.5%.

At the same time, the economic confrontation runs in both directions. According to KSE Institute calculations, the direct losses of the Russian economy from strikes on oil refineries are estimated at $20 billion, not counting the cost of repairing damaged facilities.

Meanwhile, the geography of threats is changing. Whereas physical protection of infrastructure used to be a priority mainly for frontline regions, the need for backup power, alternative water and heat supply, and protection of production capacity now applies across the whole country.

She named underground construction as one promising direction. For businesses, such projects require substantial investment and, therefore, matching preferential lending programs.

Access to Financing and War-Risk Insurance

According to Yuliia Svyrydenko, the draft 2027 state budget preserves business support programs, including the “Affordable Loans 5-7-9%” program.

However, financing remains uneven: 56% of the program’s funds go to Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, while banks are reluctant to lend to enterprises in frontline regions.

Another priority is scaling up war-risk insurance. According to data presented during the speech, the Export Credit Agency has received 240 applications for compensation to reduce the cost of insurance premiums. This is not enough for the scale of Ukraine’s economy. Expanding the program requires additional resources, including international funding.

Processing and New Markets as Growth Opportunities

Despite logistical constraints, Ukrainian enterprises continue to adapt: they have rerouted shipments and are using Danube ports and rail transport.

However, for long-term development, Yuliia Svyrydenko believes it is important to invest more actively in processing. Producing goods with higher added value not only increases the economic value of exports but also reduces the physical volume of cargo, which is critical under limited logistics.

At the same time, the war is creating demand for new products and services, particularly in security. One example is the humanitarian demining market.

The KSE BS President explained that experts initially estimated it would take 100–200 years to clear Ukrainian territory. That is why one of the solutions was to bring in the private sector. Today, Ukraine has around 200 operators able to carry out humanitarian demining. The state provides regulation and certification, while private companies compete for contracts through the procurement system.